EV

[DMiller]

They speak a great line, but these batteries have not been out that long, will see how long that commentary lasts.

 

[Truck Shop]

DM--The same was said when model T came along, the same was said when the
cell phone came along. In a short time people are walking around with a computer
in their pocket.

 

[John C.]

That article from Cummins didn't say anything about salvage or disposal. They say they are working with some second rate college on possibilities? It is the perfect example of blue sky and double speak that comes from a corporation trying to sell an unproven or possibly problematic product.

Not only that, you can't read the article unless you allow all cookies to infect your computer?

 

[Truck Shop]

I don't think anyone can be satisfied with anything in this thread.
The whole nation is infected.
It's all a conspiracy these days.
People hate change, it's uncomfortable but constant.

 

[Spud_Monkey]

We are just one battery breakthrough discovery from making EV a replacement for combustion engines just as cell phones have come from the Motorola brick cell phones to what you are looking at now for some to read this of today's cell phones and tablets.
As for replacement by certain dates in the near future as Washington and California have signed into law, no it's not physically, economically or logistically possible. Look up how many registered combustion engine vehicles in those two states alone, then break down by the time table before zero hour and that should paint a Jackson Pollock painting of where this is going.

 

[Truck Shop]

Had already looked that up Spud several months ago.
World 1.4 billion
Cars 280 million US
Trucks 15.5 million US
Motorcycles 8.5 million US.
Lawn mowers 5 million US.
Average car life 11.4 years US.
Zero hour is no more combustion engines sold, there will still be combustion engines on the road.
Washington State registered 2016-2.86 million.
California registered 2016-31 million.

I guess some will be walking-but the U.S. has a Fat/Obesity problem so it may help out there
for the Jackson Pollock painting.

 

[cuttin edge]

Those fangled horseless carriages will never catch on. Where will you get petrol to fill them, farmer browns field. Why would I waste my money on that contraption, when I can fuel my old horse anywhere. See the latest tiktok of a horse delivering fuel to a horseless carriage. They will never catch on. Keeping my horse thank you.

 

[DMiller]

Better off with the horse where can also use as a lawn mower.
Current average price for a EV Car $65,000
Battery life? Battery replacement costs another?
Value of car at 7-8 years, projected far less than cost of new battery. Prius and Leaf cars been thru this, not good.
So swap to next new as battery fails?

 

[renovator]

I don't think anyone can be satisfied with anything in this thread.
The whole nation is infected.
It's all a conspiracy these days.
People hate change, it's uncomfortable but constant.

Change is indeed constant.

We are just one battery breakthrough discovery from making EV a replacement for combustion engines just as cell phones have come from the Motorola brick cell phones to what you are looking at now for some to read this of today's cell phones and tablets.
As for replacement by certain dates in the near future as Washington and California have signed into law, no it's not physically, economically or logistically possible. Look up how many registered combustion engine vehicles in those two states alone, then break down by the time table before zero hour and that should paint a Jackson Pollock painting of where this is going.

We are just one battery breakthrough discovery from making EV a replacement for combustion engines just as cell phones have come from the Motorola brick cell phones to what you are looking at now for some to read this of today's cell phones and tablets.
As for replacement by certain dates in the near future as Washington and California have signed into law, no it's not physically, economically or logistically possible. Look up how many registered combustion engine vehicles in those two states alone, then break down by the time table before zero hour and that should paint a Jackson Pollock painting of where this is going.

The difference with cell phones and Model Ts (v horse and carriage), is that they were products of the free market. To my knowledge, the government never mandated or subsidized either of them (although the government saw the potential). The best solutions come from small entrepreneurial start ups or some guy working in his garage. As long as the government tries to control, direct, or mandate technology, it gets skewed. I would love to have a Tesla, but it doesn't work for me for a host of reasons. As has probably been stated before, even Elon Musk says we still need oil and gas.

 

[Spud_Monkey]

Had already looked that up Spud several months ago.
World 1.4 billion
Cars 280 million US
Trucks 15.5 million US
Motorcycles 8.5 million US.
Lawn mowers 5 million US.
Average car life 11.4 years US.
Zero hour is no more combustion engines sold, there will still be combustion engines on the road.
Washington State registered 2016-2.86 million.
California registered 2016-31 million.

I guess some will be walking-but the U.S. has a Fat/Obesity problem so it may help out there
for the Jackson Pollock painting.

So let's halve those numbers for schits and giggles for one state with lowest number registered vehicles and divide that by the years they got to do this.
Washington state 2030 which is 8 years from now 17,203 cars +/- a month better be delivered costing according to @DMiller $65k a car for average, just in a month car manufacturers would be making $1,106,547,619 a month without interest accrued and that's with half of the vehicles registered.

Change is indeed constant.



The difference with cell phones and Model Ts (v horse and carriage), is that they were products of the free market. To my knowledge, the government never mandated or subsidized either of them (although the government saw the potential). The best solutions come from small entrepreneurial start ups or some guy working in his garage. As long as the government tries to control, direct, or mandate technology, it gets skewed. I would love to have a Tesla, but it doesn't work for me for a host of reasons. As has probably been stated before, even Elon Musk says we still need oil and gas.

It wasn't til last couple of decades the gov learned they could do more with mandates, free market left the building long ago.

Far as I'm concerned I don't care which direction this goes, I get a laugh both ways.

 

[Truck Shop]

Far as I'm concerned I don't care which direction this goes, I get a laugh both ways.

Spud-it's not that I'm for or against EV's. Hell there's a good chance I'll be dead by 2030 and never see
any of this. The point is {it's going to happen maybe not as fast or slow as some think}. I've seen a lot
take place in my life time and most I never thought would happen, did.

 

[Spud_Monkey]

Spud-it's not that I'm for or against EV's. Hell there's a good chance I'll be dead by 2030 and never see
any of this. The point is {it's going to happen maybe not as fast or slow as some think}. I've seen a lot
take place in my life time and most I never thought would happen, did.

Oh I got your point and understand your position on it, wasn't aimed at you. I'm laughing at the figures and not yours but realistic numbers of feasibility. I'm in the same boat as you on which direction and speed this might go, I'm just stating the variables as is speak for themselves on speed of this going. I'm sitting in the middle of this along with a lot of other things that are out of my control.

 

[Truck Shop]

The only thing I know for sure is my 22 year old cat is there to greet me every morning
wanting fed.

 

[suladas]

I know one thing for certain, I will still be driving a diesel pickup in 10 years, and I bet anything they will still be making new diesel pickups. I am quite sure at some point in my life I will own an EV, but it won't be any time soon. At least where I live, I am certain EV will still be

The big difference as said between the model t and cellphone is they gained traction because people actually wanted them and they made sense. EV are being legislated and shoved down our throat without any choice. Pencil in the numbers and feasibility of an EV, and if it made more sense then what I have now I would buy one tomorrow as I bet most people would. Telsa isn't even a car company, they are just a government grant receiver, they get billions a year. They wouldn't even be in business if the government didn't heavily subsidize them. EV shouldn't even be allowed on the road anywhere unless they are somehow paying a road tax. It pisses me off to no end that any EV owner is stealing from every single taxpayer to subsidize their BS.

 

[DMiller]

Like you TS, I likely will not be alive to see the change over, personally I have no desire of a all electric auto as prefer when go to TX or OK or out to CO to stop for short fill ups and move along over a day’s time not over days. Comes down to it I will stop traveling long before then.
Current pricing of EVs is limited on sales numbers where when can profit heavily will surely increase and as seen in the latest Truck sagas the prices have to rise as warranties expand and cut profit margins so that $65,000 is just a starting figure.

At some point all manner of things will have to change or adjust, I too agree there is and will be no need for mandates to make the change happen.

 

[Old Doug]

I can see how the horseless carriage and other things that has happen did there was room for them and it was easy to slowly happen but the EV it will take a big change to make it happen.
I heard that places wanted people to stop charging their EV because of a overload on the electric grid during hot weather. I hate to see the petrol engine die but worse i hate to see my freedom of transportation die.

 

[terex herder]

The horseless carriage succeeded because it was so superior to the horse. Exactly how is the ev superior to the ic vehicle?

I won't dispute the ev will work well in some situations. But to mandate it in all situations is stupid, but stupid is what bureaucrats do best.

 

[DMiller]

Unless battery and recharger systems vastly improve as to distances reliability and dependability EVs will remain a novelty as were the early forms of electrics the Auto industry produced. Loads of items need to change up and not deteriorate or stagnate.

Tesla’s big trucks will prove or disprove viability with current technology where from there the changes may occur quicker. They don’t the problems could curse the industry.

 

[mitch504]

I won't dispute the ev will work well in some situations. But to mandate it in all situations is stupid, but stupid is what bureaucrats do best.

They always want to mandate one-size-fits-all, but it never does. I don't doubt that it could one day be common place to plug your backhoe in over night on an urban jobsite, but when mine is in the national forest, 15 miles from the nearest powerline, what am I going to do, haul a $35,000 power pack trailer out every evening to recharge it, then in the morning haul the power pack back to town so it can recharge while the backhoe works? Or buy an exemption to run a diesel generator to charge my electric backhoe?

I am just glad I am too old to work through most of this.

 

[cfherrman]

This problem will work it's way out, the mandates are either to make politicians more money or break the working class into communism and not part of the natural change of technology. Horse and carriage lasted into WW2 and the ice(internal combustion engine) will last longer, perhaps never go away. The mandates will not work and get broken. Oil will never go away which is good for me since I'm in the oilfield.

Ev battery packs are not currently sustainable for many uses but ev's are a better system then ice for many, many uses, forklifts that run 8 hr days are currently being converted or built new, cost less in price and maintenance.

I can't wait to convert my rig to electric running a 300-350 kw 6-9l generator and a 200-300 HP motor, just need a spare rig and $40,000