As far as diesels in light pickups in the US, I think it will happen if they cure the particulate problem. Or change the rules.
I hate the the regen in my 2008 3500, but I bought it despite the bad milage. The price I ended up paying for the basic truck that was offered was $28,000. But I have roll up windows and no fancy trim or wheels but all the drivetrain goodies including pto. Its a work truck.
I have got to the point that dependablity for a certain amount of years was more important than fuel milage. My 97 powerstroke which I kept as a backup cause it's its really not worth anything to sell but will do most everything my new truck will including suck at fuel milage when towing. It's just not as reliable anymore.
I don't see the the light truck changing a whole lot except they will be powered by gas or hybrid. The only manufactures that went full blown on diesels were american car makers because we money/credit here to pay. I want a truck for a least ten years without have to modify or repair it too often.
I'm pretty sure that ten years from now, the engines you see in light trucks and almost all vehicles will be smaller displacement,higher hp that will get much better fuel milage. The holy grail is producing as much power out of the existing fuel we have until something better comes along.
Engine computer controls that were pie in the sky 5 years ago are enabling engine makers to improve the forced induction tech way beyond what was expected. Vw has a 1.4 4cylinder that puts out 175 hp and close to 45 mpg.
It uses a supercharger/turbo setup that I'm sure raise the bar for all you hot rodders.
Getting the light duty segment of the vehicals to reach 29 mpg will be pretty easy in my opinion, because of how the mix of vehicals will be by then. The half ton market will be there by smaller.Ths suv and light truck comprised 50% of the light vehical ( anything under 14000 lbs) in 2004 and it been steadily dropping. The trend is that your big suvs are going away with smaller more fuel efficient car making up more of the mix. Daily drivers don't want the power if it sacrifices economy.I think fleet operators have always felt this way.
Rating the the fuel milage across the spectrum of all models skews it on way or another. Unless they change how they rate mpg the numbers, it should work in our favor . I think those in the know are aware of this.
My hd 3500 doesn't count nor does all the bigger stuff that makes up the construction business.
With the client base in my business changing it's really important that I have as much info on what work is going to be like five or ten years down the road.Thats why I consistantly come to this site.
I look forward to all opinions, so if someone says some thing I disagree with only makes me think a little harder. Infering doubt on someones opinion without supporting it with facts is disingenuos and is the reason we as Americans are confused. Maybe we can get some opinions from those in different parts of the world on how they see what the future will be and how they deal or not deal with emission problems and what it has cost there economy.
