Need general opinions about brands

Lynxie: You have very advanced statistical modeling skills. I could have used you in my consulting business! Just remember the saying, "When all else fails, manipulate the data." : ) That said, I think you've completed the general analysis. This work should help you narrow the field of available excavators (machines that you have an interest in pursuing. Now, per the advice of the "real experienced guys" on this site, go rent a few machines. Talk to dealers and locals that are using excavators that meet your parameters. I'd be interested to hear how your real-life experience combined with this detailed analysis affects your purchasing decision. Best, A

Allan M said:

Lynxie: You have very advanced statistical modeling skills. I could have used you in my consulting business! Just remember the saying, "When all else fails, manipulate the data." : ) That said, I think you've completed the general analysis. This work should help you narrow the field of available excavators (machines that you have an interest in pursuing. Now, per the advice of the "real experienced guys" on this site, go rent a few machines. Talk to dealers and locals that are using excavators that meet your parameters. I'd be interested to hear how your real-life experience combined with this detailed analysis affects your purchasing decision. Best, A

Click to expand...

Thanks very much Allan - always nice to hear when you've put some effort into something. Yeah I agree, homework done -- now for the labwork.

Is all your decisions this tortured?

Yes

Zillow tried to do the same thing with houses. In the end, they shut down that part of the company and laid off all those employees. Unfortunately, you can only determine a range of value using statistics. Statistics also have to have a trusted and reliable source. No mater how you look at it, purchase and sale prices are still a matter of feel based on time in the industry.

I would rank CAT in first place for no other reason than I believe the have one of the best parts systems. But I am biased.

I'll chime in with my usual comments on this issue, dealer support should play a huge factor in your choice. How quickly can your dealer get you back to work when something goes wrong? How well equipped is their facility? I'm very fortunate to have a Caterpillar dealer 20 minutes away, they have set the model for machine support both with parts availability and service facilities. I also have Deere and Komatsu within 30 minutes.

I have a Cat 304E2 at work that does a nice job, my only disappointment has been starved hydraulics when running a brush head with the auxiliary hydraulics, I can't move the boom or dipper if the brush head motor is powered. If you're planning a lot of this type of work I'd look for a machine that has different priorities in the hydraulics or a dedicated pump for the auxiliary if such a machine exists.

Lynxie Bobbles said:

It's definitely a good point. I'd like to be able to just order parts online, watch some videos, and DIY. I do weld and know my way around engines, but... not necessarily looking forward to that as a part time job. I don't have a feel for how much maintenance these machines are, so that could be an unrealistic time burden.

Click to expand...

First off apologies, didn't see the response.

When I worked at a deere dealer we were very big on helping equipment owners decide if it was worth bringing in simple troubleshooting over the phone was always an option. But we also had customers who had plenty of money but not much time and they would drop off their equipment for any thing. I don't remember any of JD mini ex's having too many major problems but lots of leaking O-rings with age and heat, compact means less air flow, and busted or worn hoses. None were overly complex but some times routing a hose can be rather frustrating.

LB - spent an hour reading your submission and looking at your spreadsheet. Great piece of work. Very likely you will be able to make money using any of the machines, but agree you need to make sure you get your first machine at the right price with lots of life left in it. Interesting comment wrt hours not being one or two in the list of important attributes. I have a few pieces of construction equipment ( 2 cranes, Boom Lift etc ) and am about to buy my first excavator, your spreadsheet affirmed that I paid the right price for it.

Lynxie Bobbles said:

Thanks very much Allan - always nice to hear when you've put some effort into something. Yeah I agree, homework done -- now for the labwork.

Click to expand...

Any update?

Steve Frazier said:

I'll chime in with my usual comments on this issue, dealer support should play a huge factor in your choice. How quickly can your dealer get you back to work when something goes wrong? How well equipped is their facility?

Click to expand...

Thanks for the info Steve.

Zewnten said:

First off apologies, didn't see the response.

When I worked at a deere dealer we were very big on helping equipment owners decide if it was worth bringing in simple troubleshooting over the phone was always an option. But we also had customers who had plenty of money but not much time and they would drop off their equipment for any thing. I don't remember any of JD mini ex's having too many major problems but lots of leaking O-rings with age and heat, compact means less air flow, and busted or worn hoses. None were overly complex but some times routing a hose can be rather frustrating.

Click to expand...

Thanks Z

Vital said:

LB - spent an hour reading your submission and looking at your spreadsheet. Great piece of work. Very likely you will be able to make money using any of the machines, but agree you need to make sure you get your first machine at the right price with lots of life left in it. Interesting comment wrt hours not being one or two in the list of important attributes. I have a few pieces of construction equipment ( 2 cranes, Boom Lift etc ) and am about to buy my first excavator, your spreadsheet affirmed that I paid the right price for it.

Click to expand...

Nice!

zeroo said:

Any update?

Click to expand...

Saving up cash...don't like debts.

Hello Lynxie,

It sounds like you are where I was about 18 months ago. I spent a lot of time doing research on brands and what and how to buy. I wanted a reliable solid used machine. I considered all the usual suspects and went and looked at several. There were no great deals out there but by doing research I knew the market and I was ready when my machine came on the market. I bought a 2014 Deere 35G with a thumb and three buckets with 1,200 hours on it. I was open minded to several brands and ended up closing on my 35G. I love it. As others have stated close availability of parts and service is important. I looked at sold pricing from Machinery Trader and Ritchie Brothers to help me zero in on market pricing and it turned out to be pretty accurate. I learned that you have to know the market and be ready to pounce when a machine you like hits the market. After you buy it, don't look back just go forward. I have attached my spread sheet which is kind of like yours (but not as sophisticated as yours). It helped me be confident in pricing when my machine came up. If you have any questions about my buying process or my machine just ask. Good luck.

Lynxie Bobbles said:

Hm. I am very curious what the 1-2 year future will look like. Will prices come down because of high interest rates and payments, or will they still go up because of high inflation? :s

Click to expand...

Here we are 9 months after your post, looks like up 30% between May and now. IF YOU CAN GET ONE!!!

You're sure on it with the analytics. Some great data gathering and analysis. Coming from a former numbers guy, turned into operator/contractor purchasing the right machine goes quite a ways beyond just those numbers.
Pretty much all of the mainstream brands are good brands. A machines price or market value is not necessairly reflection of the brands quality, reliability etc. Some brands simply have much more overhead to pay for than others. Just make sure you can get parts easily/ Know what other buckets or attachments you may want for the machine. Lugging makes a difference. For example it's pretty easy to find used attachments at a freaction of the cost of new if you have a wedge coupler. if you end up with a wain roy or a bobcat x change, good luck.
If I was in your shoes, I'd look at power - go either yanmar or kubota.
Wouldn't put as much weight on actual brands as they all have their pros and cons
I'd stay away from auction equipment and try and get an o/o machine with service records. I know guys that literally buy junk machines, get them to work and flip them in auctions.
Prices will most likely keep coming down as rates go up. Key is to take your time and the right machine will come up.