Crystal Ball

[DMiller]

Ours is still a Fixed 4%, pay Extra EVERY Month regularly, have already knocked five years off back end of 30 year fixed rate.

Markets are basing rises against not profit margins but moneys spent, IE CC Debt, that is a real bad way to do business.

 

[ianjoub]

We have rental homes for our income. I think the immediate future looks bleak. I can see a huge recession/depression coming with the financial reset that has been looming. We are fortunate we owe nothing, but I can see our income taking a huge hit and expenses going up for evictions (and the repairs when folks trash the places on their way out because it was obviously all my fault). I am not sure if we will go on a buying spree when the repo market is flooded with cheap places. We are old enough we don't need more and should just p!ss our money away doing what we want to do.

 

[JD955SC]

Things are going really good for me so you know it’s about to all go to ****

 

[Truck Shop]

Page 1 Nov 2022 it sounded like the earth was flat and were close to the edge.

 

[crane operator]

I don't think everyone was doom and gloom last november, I'm cherry picking statements here, but :

My personal opinion is things aren't going to change much.

I think I'm with Crane Op on this one. I'm not worried but sometimes feel like I should be.

Everyone is still working, the USA is way short of housing. I think the chances of a significant recession are overblown.

Several other guys here took chances last year on growth. I think its good to think about "what if the economy goes the other way", especially when things are good.

I try not to carry much debt, but the way the tax code works, its more profitable/ uncle sam incentivizes debt. So I do carry some debt.

I was totally wrong last year, about interest rates not going up a lot (they went up more than I thought they would), and I think today they are going to go down in the next year.

We are looking at doing some work to the house, because it needs a roof, and siding, and windows. I'm a cheapskate about keeping my home maintained. But its time and it needs done.

 

[CM1995]

I don't think everyone was doom and gloom last november, I'm cherry picking statements here, but :

Nope me neither.

I think my market has acted/reacted close to what I expected last year.

 

[AzIron]

I honestly don't know what to think I was and am concerned about the overall economy going down but I also increased revenue by 40 percent this year and bought a lot of nice to haves like a vac truck and a really nice service truck not to mention some more excavators while I mainly paid cash for most purchases the vac truck added a lot to the debt.

The really strange thing to me is there are a lot of out of state companies setting up shop here in the last 2 years but they don't seem to be bringing any man power with them so the already depleted labor pool is what they are trying to hire from and it's been a **** show for that I have seen guys go onto jobs to try to poach help and people may or may have not about got into fist fights over such less than classy practices.

As long as our labor pool stays the way it is we will have work I am working on one project that will probably not get done till 2027 or 28 and am bidding on another that may be 2 years long its really insane but if the data market dies then half the local contractors will be gone in a year at least that's how I see it

 

[CM1995]

What brand vac truck did you get?

 

[Shimmy1]

Somehow I missed this discussion last year. Not sure what I would have said, other than I knew going into December that I was booked full before the first of the year. Repairs/fuel are what they are, I'm considering buying another 16k bulk tank so I can take delivery of two tanker loads anytime between November and February when prices are lowest.

I'm going to hit a different angle on this conversation. Those of you that are busy, I assume that a percentage of the work is scheduled, and the rest is walk-in? Obviously, everybody has a slightly different dynamic, but with a small crew such as mine, it is difficult to find the line between scheduling enough to make sure you're busy all the time, but leave enough time for the walk-in work. My problem is I seem to always commit to more than the season allows. In my area, every season there seems to be a lot of "impulse" work I'll call it. About mid-September, guys start calling wanting work done. If I've completely filled the schedule, like I usually do, I have to tell these guys I can't get there, have to do it next year. Most guys wait, some don't. The biggest fear is the ones that go buy their own yellow iron and then I've lost them for good.

 

[AzIron]

What brand vac truck did you get?

Vermeer it was the deal to be made we bought a used one out of North Dakota dam thing is huge
I was being extorted by badger and the service was questionable so when I questioned them about there response was no one else will cover you so what are you going to be able to do about it and the saga started there

The biggest fear is the ones that go buy their own yellow iron and then I've lost them for good.

If that's your biggest fear then your probably OK I hear you on the have room for walk in work and it gets a little rough sometimes keeping the service work going cause we are buried in contract work at that moment

In our market rental houses made service work a tough gig but since no operators exist anymore and no one has extra labor it's been reasonable with customers unable to man equipment themselves

 

[Welder Dave]

Even if potential customers buy their own machines doesn't mean they know what they're doing or won't need some touch up work. Sometimes it results in a bigger job than it would have been because you have to try and fix the mess they created.

 

[CM1995]

I was totally wrong last year, about interest rates not going up a lot (they went up more than I thought they would), and I think today they are going to go down in the next year.

What are you thinking on rates?

My gut says the rates are staying where they are at.

 

[crane operator]

Down 1 to two points. They've got inflation stunted, and don't want a collapse. Higher interest hurts uncle sam, he owes a lot of $$.

They've got to be getting a lot of static from real estate and automakers. I don't think they care terribly about the real estate sector, but the bankers backing it are the force there. Auto sector is lots of jobs and voters, they aren't going to let them get hurt long term either.

 

[crane operator]

But I was wrong about rates last year, and I still think Tesla is a terrible buy, so I wouldn't bet the bank on any of my thoughts.....

 

[Shimmy1]

Even if potential customers buy their own machines doesn't mean they know what they're doing or won't need some touch up work. Sometimes it results in a bigger job than it would have been because you have to try and fix the mess they created.

Not around here. It usually starts with a pull pan, and most guys already have a loader and skidder. After they start doing there own scraping, they get used to not waiting, and then the hoe comes.

 

[crane operator]

Not around here. It usually starts with a pull pan, and most guys already have a loader and skidder. After they start doing there own scraping, they get used to not waiting, and then the hoe comes.

And then they are probably doing the neighbors work also, and then they're the competition. Farmers with a dirt working hobby would be tough to compete with.

I've got "competition" running around with no skills, no insurance, and a willingness to set trusses all day on a saturday for $200. One of his "customers" says the framers get pissed by being knocked off the wall, but "he's cheap".

 

[Shimmy1]

And then they are probably doing the neighbors work also, and then they're the competition. Farmers with a dirt working hobby would be tough to compete with.

I had a dog and ............. was his name-o.

 

[CM1995]

Down 1 to two points. They've got inflation stunted, and don't want a collapse. Higher interest hurts uncle sam, he owes a lot of $$.

I hope so. My confidence in the fed is lets say not that great.

I've got "competition" running around with no skills, no insurance, and a willingness to set trusses all day on a saturday for $200. One of his "customers" says the framers get pissed by being knocked off the wall, but "he's cheap".

For us it's bubba and a backhoe. I guess for you it's bubba and a boom truck?

 

[crane operator]

For us it's bubba and a backhoe. I guess for you it's bubba and a boom truck?

"You charge what per hour? Dad-gum it can't be that hard. We needs us som a that there constructions I-ron."

 

[CM1995]

The grass cutters here all drive around with Cat tags on front of their Tundras just waiting until the Cat man can finance their first CTL - then they're in the big leagues and the big money.

That or firemen that have an Equipmentshare rental account.

Generalizing of course but it's the reason I stay in the commercial market. Contracts, submittals, schedules and safety policies pay more and keep the bottom feeders out.