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High cattle prices here to stay?

Discussion in 'Agricultural Operations' started by JBGASH, Jan 18, 2015.

  1. old-iron-habit

    old-iron-habit Senior Member

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    Lots of people in this area sold all their stock and sent their hay to Texas and other drought areas the last few years. It did not make any sense to feed cows all winter when hay was selling for $75 to $80 a bale loaded on the purchasers truck. Now hay price is down to 1/3 of that and cows are expensive. There is a lot of whining going on that they wish they could get some reasonable priced cows.
     
  2. JBGASH

    JBGASH Senior Member

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    old-iron, I hear you loud and clear, but the word "reasonable" is out the door with this bull cattle market.
     
  3. Old Doug

    Old Doug Senior Member

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    Last week a friend told me that his neigbor sold all his cows because he belives the market is going to change. I eat lunch some times with 2 farmers that only have cows and one had took some to market and they sold low. The next time we meet up the other one got a call from his son that had just sold some cows and he was very disaponted in what they brought. Yes like others have said the drought had some here selling off some off their cows. They have build several chicken house around here in the last 6 month.
     
  4. JBGASH

    JBGASH Senior Member

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    Old Doug, I have sold off my cow herd in the past 2- different times with the thought that the cattle market was going to collapse, each time it cost me big and was a huge mistake along with me being completely wrong in my decision. I then decided to stay in through thick and thin and go the duration, so far after several years that has been working, but time will tell. One thing is for sure the market will come down sometime but my plan is to make the best of it while it is here & highly profitable and then be ready to weather the storm when it arrives.
     
  5. Cam85

    Cam85 Senior Member

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    Here in Australia lamb is cheep well goat is anyway I can buy a whole goat for $50 cut him up and stick in the freezer.
    Bambi cost me an hours drive and a 223 bullet and it's not bad chewing.
    Barra comes free from the water just a bit of fuel in the tinny and it's good chewing to.

    Butt nothin beats BEEF now one of my observations is the price of beef at the butcher shop seems to have absolutely nothing to do with the price that the cocky gets at the works if the cocky is gettin bugger all the pice of beef is still expensive if the cocky is dancing all the way to the bank the price of beef in the butcher shop stays the same.

    So can anybody explain that .

    But even so when u look at the price of mince and snag and then look at the amount of tucker u get from such things it's still cheap.
    Even the price of steak u can buy a whole round of rump $60 and they will even slice it in front of u and put so manny steaks per freezer bag for u now u work out how manny meals u can get out of it is still cheap.

    Sorry I just don't get it
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2015
  6. old-iron-habit

    old-iron-habit Senior Member

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    OK, You gotta explain to us webfooted northlanders what Barra is. I'm thinking it does not grow under the ice.
     
  7. Cam85

    Cam85 Senior Member

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    Ha ha ha ha lol sorry mate a barra is a barramundi it's a fish common to Northern Australia both fresh and salt water variety's all through our water sustems up here one rule supersedes all outhers where there's barra there's crock's.
     
  8. Queenslander

    Queenslander Senior Member

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    You should forget about driving dozers and go get a job with MLA promoting Aussie beef.:)
     
  9. Cam85

    Cam85 Senior Member

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    Na mate I turned my back on the beef industry in my late teens I can't make it pay no mater witch way I slice it
     
  10. JBGASH

    JBGASH Senior Member

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    Cam85, What is the price of hamburger in grocery store in Austraila? How does it compare to pork or chicken there?
     
  11. Btree

    Btree Member

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    I am a Ag Extension Agent and just based off the projection from our specialists they see that the price going to stay stable for now due to the return that the buyers are getting. They found out last year that they could go in the hole at the high prices they paid. I would keep a close eye on the corn market because with all the information I have seen the corn price greatly effects the cattle prices. If corn starts to rise I would look for a decrease in cattle prices. Right now corn is below $4 with no rise in sight and that means cattle will stay high in my opinion.
     
  12. Monte1255

    Monte1255 Senior Member

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    Not really a subsidy here........but I know some ranchers are using Livestock gross margin insurance to help manage the risks. Same sort of thing they got now on the fed level for dairy.......(Milk margin protection program)
     
  13. Monte1255

    Monte1255 Senior Member

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    So far I haven't seen much discussion about this..... but one thing that is not mentioned is that in China (if I have my facts straight) they have loosened their stance on one child families. I know in the Dairy industry some are gearing up for huge amts of milk to be dried and turned into infant formula. Moving down the line a few more years, as those kids get older..............what are they gonna eat? sure a lot will be other meats, but even so beef will be along for the ride. A Little history last summer I was getting around 250 per week old bull calf by December I was getting around 330 for the same sized animal...........next Thurs I'm planning on selling another lot and from what I've heard, (salesbarn office) the market is not off as much as what some of the fear mongers are claiming. time will tell I guess.
     
  14. JBGASH

    JBGASH Senior Member

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    Btree, I agree with you on the cattle prices. The 2015 corn market looks bleak, barring a wet spring or a severe 2015 drought issue. The massive size of the 2014 crop (largest crop in history) is going to take a while to get rid of, even with our ethanol plants running at full capacity. We in the Midwest & corn belt have all grain elevators chuck full, massive on farm storage bins full & huge 1-million bushel piles of outside stored corn setting everywhere. What surprises me is the corn market being as high as it is, with this huge amount of corn to work through.
     
  15. Btree

    Btree Member

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    I think the only reason the price has stabilized is the fact that our exports are still strong. On top of that we all know that the cure for low priced corn is low priced corn. With the price the way it is the acres planted are going to be way down. In Georgia we are looking at about half or less that what we saw planted two years ago. If acres keep going down across the county we may see a price rebound in 2016. For this year I think everyone is just going to try and keep their head above water and out of the red.
     
  16. Queenslander

    Queenslander Senior Member

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    Definitely something in the wind Monte.
    It's a long story, but the dairy industry in Qld has been decimated over a long period of time by market deregulation and other factors.
    However some big players have been buying up large parcels of choice land with the intention of setting up mega dairies to supply the Chinese market.
    Australia has recently signed a free trade agreement with China to ultimately supply up to one million head of live cattle per year.
    Cheers, Greg
     
  17. Monte1255

    Monte1255 Senior Member

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    Update:

    Sold that lot of bull calves this week averaged $420 per head average for calves two to three weeks old............just sayin.

    I guess you guys can take that info for what it's worth. Seems the market just got a little bit stronger for baby bull calves.......
     
  18. Scrub Puller

    Scrub Puller Senior Member

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    Yair . . . JBGASH I see Cam85 didn't get back to you on this one . . . .

    I take "hamburger" to mean ground beef (what we call "mince") and at the high volume butchery in our local town current price is three dollars eighteen cents a pound, ground pork, lamb and chicken runs around fifty cents more.

    In chain stores and smaller butcheries it could be considerably more . . . I just took the kilogram prices and divided by 2.2.

    Cheers.
     
  19. JBGASH

    JBGASH Senior Member

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    Scrub, Thanks, here in the US beef is the most expensive meat of the those three. It is very surprising to me that pork, lamb & chicken are higher than beef there. That is a good thing for the Down Under cattlemen and prolly helpful to us US cattlemen too.
     
  20. .RC.

    .RC. Senior Member

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    Beef is cheaper here because the prices have been so low...

    This is what we got in February this year, all weights are carcass weights...

    Code:
    Category Summary            Bodies        Tot Wgt   Avg Wgt(kg)    Avg Val      Avg $/Kg    
               OX                 37.0        12946.5     349.9          $1552.99      4.44         
    
    This is what we got exactly two years ago
    
    Category Summary            Bodies       Tot Wgt   Avg Wgt(kg)    Avg Val      Avg $/Kg   
               OX                 24.0        8415.0     350.6            $990.04        2.82 
    We have just gone through a rather protracted beef depression..