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Crystal Ball

DMiller

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Messages
16,432
Location
Hermann, Missouri
Occupation
Cheap "old" Geezer
Most everything around here that is Truck dependent is slowed to a crawl. Parts, Service due to NO Parts, sales due to low inventories, from tons up. Cement orders are way down, that from the guys hauling clay to the kilns, barge traffic is slow but due to low water, grain shipments not moving leaving brokers holding stranded costs against loans. Noted grocery is still High, Fuels of all types still High, anything as to materials for homes still high and damned near to no available work forces for labor intensive positions.

Old saying still holds. Hard Times produce Hard Men, Hard Men produce Good Times, Good Times produce Soft Men and Soft Men produce Hard Times.
 

John C.

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 11, 2007
Messages
12,865
Location
Northwest
Occupation
Machinery & Equipment Appraiser
I hope they stay far away from the trades. Last thing I want to deal with is having coworkers with that kind of corporate mindset if you catch my drift.

I would look at this in a positive light. Most of us in the trades are here because we had no other choice. That may likely take hold again. Many in desk jobs have the intelligence and work ethic to perform in the trades. The ones that don't want to do this type of work will be filtered out pretty quickly.
 

92U 3406

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2017
Messages
3,099
Location
Western Canuckistan
Occupation
Wrench Bender
I would look at this in a positive light. Most of us in the trades are here because we had no other choice. That may likely take hold again. Many in desk jobs have the intelligence and work ethic to perform in the trades. The ones that don't want to do this type of work will be filtered out pretty quickly.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for people getting into skilled trades if they enjoy the job and the work culture, I'm just concerned that the folks from big tech will bring along that woke mentality they've been branded with.
 

mekanik

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2015
Messages
943
Location
Canada's Northwest
I remember reading somewhere that anyone who borrowed heavily and thought the low interest rates would always stay low was living in a fools paradise. I know a few of these people. They built or bought expensive homes new vehicles and lots of toys. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
 

92U 3406

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2017
Messages
3,099
Location
Western Canuckistan
Occupation
Wrench Bender
I remember reading somewhere that anyone who borrowed heavily and thought the low interest rates would always stay low was living in a fools paradise. I know a few of these people. They built or bought expensive homes new vehicles and lots of toys. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
I've read that if interest rates go any higher something like 20% of homeowners in this country wouldn't be able to afford the mortgage payments anymore.
 

DMiller

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Messages
16,432
Location
Hermann, Missouri
Occupation
Cheap "old" Geezer
Variable Rate, balloon mortgages, Always in flux floating interest adjusting rates, then have to add in Property Tax assessments rising due to values increases. Our payment went up $120 JUST For Taxes and Insurance(New Value) Escrow.
 

John C.

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 11, 2007
Messages
12,865
Location
Northwest
Occupation
Machinery & Equipment Appraiser
Mine went up ninety K. We are likely to be paying over seven K a year or more next year.
 

Spud_Monkey

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 15, 2018
Messages
6,437
Location
Your six
Occupation
Decommissioned
Don't get too mad folks, but this place is only appraised at $1227 which equates to $98 in taxes, the other 3 parcels are about $90 a piece. It went up $85 in 2 years. :eek::oops: Mind you that's 20 plus acres each parcel.
Once I get pole barn up and they figure out how to tax it, I believe it will be around $40k for appraisal, which then I will file some paperwork to get that nullified for appraisals up to $250k.
 

Truck Shop

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 7, 2015
Messages
16,548
Location
WWW.
Mine went up ninety K. We are likely to be paying over seven K a year or more next year.

People just love it when their property gains value and hate the taxes on the down side. I'm sure it's
the same across the state, the inflation and property tax is really hurting a lot of old folks. If they sell
there's not much to move to, retirement havens are expensive.
 

DMiller

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Messages
16,432
Location
Hermann, Missouri
Occupation
Cheap "old" Geezer
Out in our little neck of the woods we still have twisted pair main cable hanging from poles in tree lines!! SOME of the cable was put underground decades ago then the area got ignored.
Fiber transition box is less than mile and a half from here goes to buried that less than half mile from here goes back onto pole past six clients and ends up feeding our house and three others. Been told not financially feasible to finish burying it all.
 

Spud_Monkey

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 15, 2018
Messages
6,437
Location
Your six
Occupation
Decommissioned
Out in our little neck of the woods we still have twisted pair main cable hanging from poles in tree lines!! SOME of the cable was put underground decades ago then the area got ignored.
Fiber transition box is less than mile and a half from here goes to buried that less than half mile from here goes back onto pole past six clients and ends up feeding our house and three others. Been told not financially feasible to finish burying it all.
Oh they finished it, power is in to the persons place. I had my fun yesterday, was driving the loader home after plowing the road and I seen a light shine on a tree in front of me about 2 miles from my home on the ridge. I peaked back to not let them know I seen them it was the arsehole neighbor and his wife. I dropped the loader in 1st and went half throttle never turning around. Took about hour or more to get home after that :p
 

AzIron

Senior Member
Joined
Jun 14, 2016
Messages
1,541
Location
Az
Track housing busted here I am guessing multi family is not far behind cause it's going up more than ever and tilt warehouse is off the charts and is possibly going to show signs of overbuilding

Rumor around Intel is no tool install after base build of new building witch is biggest they built yet. But that could be a tech shift more than market driven

All that said noticed things tightened a little on work projects are getting pushed back and the rumors of investors jumping out is the story for the push backs

But a for sure fact that companies from residential are already trying to buy jobs outside there market concrete is more available now than ever in the last 18 months the cat dealer has more equipment available than the last 12 months and I see a lot of people that dont know how to operate without debt so things are changing
 

JD955SC

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2011
Messages
1,349
Location
The South
Track housing busted here I am guessing multi family is not far behind cause it's going up more than ever and tilt warehouse is off the charts and is possibly going to show signs of overbuilding

Rumor around Intel is no tool install after base build of new building witch is biggest they built yet. But that could be a tech shift more than market driven

All that said noticed things tightened a little on work projects are getting pushed back and the rumors of investors jumping out is the story for the push backs

But a for sure fact that companies from residential are already trying to buy jobs outside there market concrete is more available now than ever in the last 18 months the cat dealer has more equipment available than the last 12 months and I see a lot of people that dont know how to operate without debt so things are changing


Main reason we are doing good in Southeast is everybody and their cousin is trying to move here.

when that dries up I’m sure there will be a nice layoff slip for us directly behind that. I don’t know what I’ll do then.
 

DMiller

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2010
Messages
16,432
Location
Hermann, Missouri
Occupation
Cheap "old" Geezer
Existing contracts on constructs are still rolling here, but nothing new being applied for. Can see the slowing efforts as guys try to milk out what can.
 

aighead

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 25, 2019
Messages
2,541
Location
Dayton, OH
Does slower concrete work mean less expensive concrete work in this context?

I'd love to get a bargain slabbing some of the barn floor. I imagine it's still more than I could afford but it may be worth contemplating...
 
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